My Vernon Davis Blog

Ever since Jeremy Shockey was drafted and Antonio Gates came from nowhere and started doing his Superman impressions, few positions on the football field have been more (over) hyped and heralded than the tight end.

Every guy who has some size, some speed and some hands is looked at as a prospect. Offenses are being built around tight ends like never before. Gates set the single season record for touchdowns for a tight end in 2004 with 13, and Tony Gonzalez set another record with 102 receptions that year. With Gates and Gonzalez making the transition from power forward to tight end, the Final Four tournament has turned into an NFL recruiting event. Vernon Davis was drafted sixth overall this spring. Tight ends were often lucky to get picked by the sixth round before this renaissance. But why is the position getting all this attention?

There are a couple of big reasons why the position is so much more important these days, and they have to do with defenses. Tony Dungy is one of several coaches who is loyal to a cover 2 defensive scheme. If you're not up on NFL playbooks, the cover 2 is essentially a zone defense where only the D-line pass rushes and the rest of the players are responsible for covering their own piece of the field. Like any zone defense, cover 2 creates exploitable spots in the area where two zones meet. The middle linebacker can often be taken advantage of by a seam route that finds him out of place, and the tight end is a natural target of that route.

The bigger reason for the popularity of the position, however, is the 3-4 defense. That defense, with three linemen and four linebackers, is becoming more popular. One way to limit the effectiveness of that defense, and to stop it from running fancy plays, is to put two tight ends on the field (instead of a tight end and two running backs). The linebackers can find it more challenging to find matchups and safeties can be challenged as well. The two tight ends can create more gaps in the running game, too, since there are more blockers on the line.

Because the 3-4 is spreading, teams are looking to have twice as many starting tight ends on their rosters. Last year 11 teams used two tight ends for at least 45 percent of their plays, and that number is sure to grow this season. Hence, the huge demand for good tight ends. Teams aren't just looking for the big blocking bodies anymore, either. Today's tight ends are essentially oversized wide receivers with ridiculous speed and good hands. Good offense is all about creating and exploiting mismatches, and the tight end can create more mismatches than almost anyone on the field. It used to be that the tight end was just a last resort if every other receiver was covered, but now the tight end is a primary target for many teams.

Understanding the tight end can have a big impact on choosing the teams that you will bet on. Gates is the best there is by a wide margin, and Gonzalez, Shockey and Todd Heap are the players everyone knows about. By keeping your eye on some other tight ends that are poised for big years and picking your spots, however, you can have a real edge when their team is playing against a 3-4 or a rigid cover 2. Tight ends have been the difference in a lot of games over the last couple of seasons, and that will certainly be the case this year. Here are five guys we hear less about who could be gamebreakers this season:

Kellen Winslow, Jr., Cleveland - Winslow has had a terrible start to his career, but he is healthy and ready. Young QB Charlie Frye will have a better year this year if he can rely on having a TE to dump to when he gets in trouble. Frye, Winslow and Braylon Edwards have been working hard to build a rapport, and it should pay off this year. Winslow has all the tools in the world, so if he can get his attitude in line, and stay off motorcycles, he could provide the Browns a much needed edge.

Jeb Putzier, Houston - A player has a huge advantage when he is his coach's guy. New coach Gary Kubiak brought Putzier with him from Denver, so you know he'll get lots of attention. David Carr has never really had a decent option at tight end. Putzier catches the ball for long yardage when it is thrown to him. He will figure more prominently in the offense in Houston than he did in Denver, and that should benefit both him and Carr.

Eric Johnson, San Francisco - Sure, Vernon Davis is getting all the attention in San Fran, but rookie tight ends often take a while to figure things out, and Johnson is the real deal. He missed last year with an injury, but he caught 82 passes for 825 yards the year before. Alex Smith needs all the help he can get, and his wide receiver corps sure isn't going to provide it, so Johnson could be a regular target, especially early in the season.

Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville - I know I just said rookie tight ends often struggle, but Lewis has looked great in camp. Vernon Davis got all the attention at the draft, but this UCLA grad was honored as the top tight end in college last season. The Jags have never really focused on a tight end, but then they have had Kyle Brady forever, so it's a bit of a chicken and egg scenario. A high ankle sprain has slowed Lewis down for the last two weeks, but he figures to be a key target for Byron Leftwich when he hits the field.

Zachary Hilton, New Orleans - Hilton started to make an impact in the last half of last season, ending up with 35 catches and almost 400 yards. He's a 6'8" giant who makes an easy target. The biggest boost Hilton (or perhaps any player in the league) got in the offseason is the addition of Drew Brees. Brees obviously got into the habit of finding Gates, so Hilton should see a lot more leather this season.

Check Doc's Sports site for daily sports betting articles, Cleveland Browns Schedule, Jacksonville Jaguars Schedule, and San Francisco 49ers Schedule and all your sports handicapping needs.

With the NFL Draft just days away, executives and coaches from around the NFL are
hunkered down in their respective bunkers making final preparations for what may
be the most important weekend of the NFL season (outside of the Super Bowl, of
course). Both a team's immediate and long-term future can hinge on what they do
during the draft. A stinker of a draft can cost a general manager and coach their
jobs, while a smart and productive draft can make a team an instant Super Bowl
contender.

Therefore, with the draft almost here, it's time for your Phillysportsline.com NFL
Mock Draft. Bear in mind that if any trades are made in the days leading up to the
draft, changes will be made to reflect those moves. Now with that said, make sure
you strap yourselves in and keep your hands and feet inside the car at all times.

1. Texans - Reggie Bush - RB - USC

Is Reggie Bush a Marshall Faulk/Gale Sayers clone, or is he too brittle for the NFL?
While some scouts question his durability, most think Bush is a superstar waiting to
happen. While the Texans will listen to offers to trade down, the smart money says
they will hold fast and take the draft's most explosive player as the first overall pick.

2. Saints - Mario Williams - DE - NC St.

New Orleans desperately wants to trade out of this spot and acquire some extra
picks, while also picking up one of the three players on their draft board that will
still be available. One of those players is Williams, who many are saying is the next
Reggie White. If the Saints decide to stay at #2, the other player they might go after
is OL D'Brickashaw Ferguson out of Virginia. It's just a matter of deciding which side
of the ball they want to solidify most. For my money, I'll take a game-changing DE
over an OL almost every time.

3. Titans - Matt Leinart - QB - USC

No matter what happens with the Saints at #2, Tennessee will still be in a position to
draft a QB here at #3. And while Vince Young outplayed Leinart in the National
Championship game, I think Leinart is the safer bet here. Not only that, Leinart to
the Titans will reunite the USC star with his offensive coach at Southern California,
Norm Chow.

4. Jets - Vince Young - QB - Texas

New York CANNOT count on Chad Pennington to come back and perform at a high
level. As such, this team needs to find a franchise quarterback to hitch their wagon
to, and this is a great draft in which to do it. Young can run, throw and has
leadership intangibles, which should play nicely in New York. The Jets should resist
the urge to take Ferguson here and take Young at #4.

5. Packers - A.J. Hawk - OLB - Ohio St.

Defense, defense, defense. Perhaps as much as any team in the NFL, Green Bay
needs an impact player on defense and Hawk certainly fits the bill. Don't be
surprised if the Packers try to trade up into the #2 spot to select Williams, but I
think they'll stay here and select the draft's best linebacker.

6. 49ers - Vernon Davis - TE - Maryland

The question is, with Ferguson still on the board, which would help QB Alex Smith's
growth more, a stud offensive lineman or a stud tight end? I think a guy in the
middle of the field who can vacuum in just about any ball thrown his way would be
more beneficial to Smith than a lineman, which is why the Niners take Davis over
Ferguson here.

7. Raiders - Haloti Ngata - DT - Oregon

Oakland will certainly try to trade up to the #2 spot and grab Young or Leinart, but
if they can't, I doubt they'd take Vanderbilt QB Jay Cutler in this spot. More than any
other team, the Raiders love playmakers, and despite Ferguson remaining on the
board here, I say Oakland takes a playmaker on the defensive side of the ball.

8. Bills - D'Brickashaw Ferguson - OT - Virginia

Most think he will go a lot sooner than this, but I honestly can't see the Jets taking
an offensive lineman when they're hurting so much at QB and have an opportunity
to take a franchise-caliber quarterback early in the draft. A big area of need for
Buffalo is at offensive tackle, and they should count their lucky stars that Ferguson
fell to them in this spot.

9. Lions - Michael Ruff - DB - Texas

What, you were expecting a wide receiver? Detroit's gotten pretty good at throwing
away first-round picks, but I think the Lions do the smart thing here and get a shut-
down, play-making cornerback and kick-returner to anchor the secondary and
special teams. Just please don't play him at wide receiver.

10. Cardinals - Winston Justice - OT - USC

Justice may be a bit of a reach here, but the Cardinals always need help on the
offensive line, and Justice certainly impressed NFL scouts at the combines this
winter. Arizona would very much like for Ruff to fall to them at #10, but Justice is a
nice consolation prize.

11. Rams - Ernie Sims - OLB - Florida St.

St. Louis is always in need of defense, and Sims is the 2nd best linebacker on the
board and a great pick at #11. Many mocks see Sims going to Arizona at #10, but
he should still be here for the Rams to select, and will give St. Louis the play-
making defensive player they so desperately need.

12. Browns - Kamerion Wimbley - DE - Florida St.

Well, they certainly don't need any help on the offensive line, and I think it's still too
early to take one of the draft's few remaining available players at the offensive skill
positions. So look for Cleveland to take a guy who can play both defensive end and
linebacker, which would work extremely well in their 3-4 system.

13. Ravens - Jay Cutler - QB - Vanderbilt

The QB play of both Kyle Boller and Anthony Wright in 2005 was absolutely
atrocious. The Ravens need to start all over at the quarterback position, and if
Cutler is still available here at #13, the Ravens will pounce.

14. Eagles - Brodrick Bunkley - DT - Florida St.

Even though the Birds took a defensive tackle first in last year's draft, it's still a
position of need, and we all know how Andy Reid likes to spend his early-round
ammunition on solidifying the lines. Philadelphia would love for Justice or Ngata to
somehow fall to them at #14, but more than likely they'll be gone. Iowa LB Chad
Greenway is also a possibility and would probably fill a bigger need for them, but
for whatever reason the Eagles simply do not spend first-round picks on
linebackers. I don't expect them to start now.

15. Broncos - Santonio Holmes - WR - Ohio St.

After failing to sign Terrell Owens or make a trade for another receiver, Denver
would be wise to invest a first-round pick in a wideout here. Different mocks have
Florida WR Chad Jackson ahead of Holmes, but they're really pretty much the same
player. Rod Smith is about 82 years old and Ashley Lelie just isn't that good. There's
a possibility the Broncos could make a trade for Javon Walker, which would negate
this pick, but if they're still working with just Smith and Lelie, Holmes would be a
wise choice.

16. Dolphins - Chad Jackson - WR - Florida

Miami has done a good job of getting some stuff done in free agency, which makes
Jackson a logical pick here. Jackson would give the Miami passing game a little more
juice, and with the addition of Daunte Culpepper, should make it much easier for
the Dolphins to score some points.

17. Vikings - Chad Greenway - LB - Iowa

Minnesota would like for Cutler to fall to them here, but if he's gone, the Vikes will
invest in a linebacker for sure to go along with their Cover-2 scheme. Greenway has
a lot of speed and in college was an extremely strong tackler.

18. Cowboys - Donte Whitner - S - Ohio St.

All indications are Dallas would like to trade down and draft an offensive lineman
who makes a little more sense at #18. However, if they can't, look for the 'Pokes to
grab Whitner to play free safety, a guy who can cover ground and compliment SS
Roy Williams, who is now strictly a run-stopper.

19. Chargers - Johnathan Joseph - CB - South Carolina

And let the run on cornerbacks begin! San Diego has been trying to find a good
cornerback in the draft for the last few years now, but has been unsuccessful. The
offense is pretty much set, and the front seven is pretty solid as well, so look for the
Chargers to try once again to get their secondary together.

20. Chiefs - Tye Hill - CB - Clemson

Some mocks have Joseph and Hill flip-flopped as well, so look for Kansas City to
take whichever guy is left over to strengthen what has traditionally been a weak
defense. Hill is a tad small, but is extremely fast and can make up for his lack of
height with tremendous leaping ability.

21. Patriots - Manny Lawson - DE/OLB - NC St.

New England's off-season has been strikingly similar and as maddening to Pats fans
as Philadelphia's has been to their fan base. The Patriots come into the season with
big holes at WR, LB and RB, but with no players at WR and RB worth taking at #21,
Lawson makes sense here as a hybrid DE/LB who will fit in nicely with New
England's 3-4 defense.

22. 49ers - Bobby Carpenter - OLB - Ohio St.

San Francisco had to give up two picks on Day 1 (37, 68) in order to land #22,
hoping to snag a play-making defensive player. The guy the Niners would like to
pick is Lawson, but I think he'll go to the Pats one pick before San Fran selects, so
look for Carpenter to join the 49ers 3-4 scheme.

23. Buccaneers - Antonio Cromartie - CB - Florida St.

Should one of the projected first round receivers still be available at #23, but Bucs
will most likely go in that direction. However, they should be gone by now, as
should offensive lineman Winston Justice. So, look for the Bucs to grab a solid guy
for their secondary, with Cromartie being the best available guy on the board.

24. Bengals - Jimmy Williams - CB - Virginia Tech

Cincinnati really needs a TE, but Vernon Davis will be long gone and there's no one
available worth taking here in the first round. As such, the Bengals will probably
grab a cornerback here, and Williams is a complete player, able to cover the pass
and stop the run. Williams also has the ability to play a little free safety, which adds
to his value.

25. Giants - Bobby Carpenter - OLB - Ohio St.

Overshadowed by A.J. Hawk, Carpenter is a legitimate first-round pick and would be
a very good fit in New York, despite the signing of LaVar Arrington. Carpenter's dad,
Rob, is an employee with the Giants, so Bobby is a good bet to land with Big Blue.

26. Bears - Ashton Youboty - CB - Ohio St.

Ohio St. defense is well represented here in the 2006 draft, and now another one is
off the board to Chicago. The Bears have big, big needs on offense, but the only
skill player left that would sort of make sense here is Memphis running back
DeAngelo Williams. However, Chicago is pretty set with both Cedric Benson and
Thomas Jones. So, look for the Bears to go get a cornerback to solidify the pass
defense.

27. Panthers - DeAngelo Williams - RB - Memphis

To be able to draft the best running back in the draft at #27, Carolina would be
crazy to pass up on Williams here, especially with the likes of oft-injured DeShaun
Foster and super-old Stephen Davis in the backfield.

28. Jaguars - Mathias Kiwanuka - DE - Boston College

Jack Del Rio likes defensive players, so expect him to go after Kiwanuka with pick
#28 here.

29. Jets - Nick Mangold - C - Ohio St.

Another Ohio Stater? Seeing as how the Jets didn't go after D'Brickashaw Ferguson
with the #4 pick, New York will most likely go offensive line here late in Round #1.

30. Colts - Laurence Maroney - RB - Minnesota

With Edge now in the desert, Indianapolis will select the talented Maroney to take his place and take some of the heat off Manning & Co.

31. Seahawks - Jason Allen - S - Tennessee

Seattle has needs in the secondary, and Allen would definitely help out in the event
that Ken Hamlin doesn't return to full capacity next year.

32. Steelers - LenDale White - RB - USC

White was at one point seen as a top-15 pick, but he has had a horrendous off-
season, suffering a hamstring injury and coming up very small at the bench-press
portion of the combines. Even so, White's college career warrants him being a first-
round pick, and with Jerome Bettis' retirement and Duce Staley's career just about
over, adding White to the backfield with the super-speedy Willie Parker would give
Pittsburgh their two-headed running attack.

Any questions or comments, you can email John at jstolnis@phillysportsline.com.

John Stolnis Staff Writer PhillySportsline.com.

The NFL draft is quickly approaching and being the fantasy sports dork I am, I honestly can't wait. Each year is like a ritual for me...a constant in my life if you will. I wake-up, walk the dog, drink my coffee, read the morning news, spend some quality time with my girlfriend and then park my butt in front of the TV for about 12 hours of the NFL draft. It does run a distant second to any fantasy baseball or fantasy football draft, but nonetheless it's still very exciting.

Is your favorite team going to get the guy you want? Are there going to be any big time trades? Which guy is gonna be the next big star in the NFL? Are the Jets inevitably going to screw-up the 6th overall selection? With all of the recent free agent movement, the first round is really beginning to take shape and this year's draft class is looking like it could be a great one.

There are several offensive and defensive players who could have an immediate impact in the 2008 fantasy football season. Studly running backs like Darren McFadden, physical beast Jonathan Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall could all impress their rookie season. Wideouts like Desean Jackson and Limas Sweed could also put up solid numbers. Not to mention, there are a boatload of IDP who could be instant fantasy sports studs like Patrick Willis was in 2007.

Here's how we think the top ten shapes out. Check back later this week to see picks 11 - 20.

2008 NFL 1st Round Mock v 1.1 (Picks 1-10)

1) Miami Dolphins

Matt Ryan - QB - Boston College

I'm still not convinced that the Dolphins won't end-up trading this pick. But if they don't, I've got to believe that they'll take Ryan. He's the best QB in the draft and is the closest thing to NFL ready that there is. Parcells has proven that he's not scared to select a QB #1 overall when he took Drew Bledsoe with the #1 overall pick in 1993 with the New England Patriots.

Alternatives: Jake Long, Chris Long, Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis, Vernon Gholston

Fantasy Impact: Keep in mind that almost every single QB struggles in their first full season in the NFL and it usually takes at least a year for them to adjust. He'd be no better than a #2 QB in 2008, but could be a #1 as early as 2009. In seasonal leagues he's not worth drafting as anything more than a flier, but he's worth a 1st round pick in all dynasty leagues based upon his potential.

2) St. Louis Rams

Jake Long - OT - Michigan

The Rams are built around Marc Bulger getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers, Torry Holt and Steven Jackson. The offensive line was atrocious last year and Orlando Pace isn't getting any younger or healthier for that matter. Without a decent offensive line, there's no way Bulger can get his playmakers the ball. Jake Long is the consensus #1 OL in the draft and he's got to be the pick here. Glenn Dorsey will be difficult to pass-up, but they've got to get better and younger on the O-line.

Alternatives: Chris Long, Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis, Vernon Gholston

Fantasy Impact: Long would instantly upgrade Marc Bulger's and Steven Jackson's probability for success in 2008.

3) Atlanta Falcons

Chris Long - DE - Virginia

Normally this pick would easily be Darren McFadden. But the Falcons signed Michael Turner and still have Jerious Norwood, so I doubt they'll take a RB here. With Matt Ryan and Jake Long already off the board, I would expect Atlanta to heavily shop the pick and try to trade down. There's no secret that Jimmy Jones and the Dallas Cowboys covet Darren McFadden and have the ammo to make a trade to move up and snag him. Atlanta could use a lot of help and two first round picks would be huge. If they're unable to make a trade, the Falcons will take the best player available in Chris Long. Long had a great career at Virginia and is arguably the best defensive player in the draft. He's physical, smart, talented and has a motor to go with it. He'll be a great addition to whatever team gets him.

Alternatives: Darren McFadden, Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis, Vernon Gholston

Fantasy Impact: Long will eventually be an impact player in the NFL. However, a lot of what Long will bring to the table might not show-up in the stat sheet. There's now way he'll put up the monster stats that Patrick Willis did as a rookie, but he'll be a nice sleeper pick in the late rounds for IDP leagues.

4) Oakland Raiders

Glenn Dorsey - DT - LSU

If Al Davis has no clue what he's doing, then I certainly don't either. Darren McFadden is the most electric player in the draft and he'll be very difficult to pass on. But the Raiders already have Justin Fargas, Dominic Rhodes, Lamont Jordan and Michael Bush at the position and they really need help on the defensive line with Warren Sapp retiring. I think they'll eventually come to their senses and take Dorsey. He's an impact player who can defend the run and put pressure on the quarterback. That's a rare combination for a DT. Normally this guy would be the first player taken in the draft, but he's gonna slip to the Raiders at pick 4 because of some recent injury concerns.

Alternatives: Darren McFadden, Chris Long, Sedrick Ellis, Vernon Gholston

Fantasy Impact: Dorsey was the consensus #1 pick a month ago before the injury concerns and for good reason...he's a beast. Much like QB's, DT's don't usually put up monster stats their rookie season even if they're stars in the making. Dorsey will probably end-up with stats around 35 TK - 4 Sacks - 1 FF.

5) Kansas City Chiefs

Sedrick Ellis - DT - USC

The Chiefs need help everywhere on the roster. Their offensive line has gone from one of the best in the league to below average. Jake Long would be the pick here but he's already taken. They could reach for a guy like Clady, but there's too much top talent still on the board to pass up. Ellis hasn't been hyped like Dorsey and isn't as sexy of a pick, but the guy can flat out play. He had the best showing at the Senior Bowl for any defensive lineman and could wind-up being the best of the bunch.

Alternatives: Darren McFadden, Vernon Gholston, Ryan Clady

Fantasy Impact: Ellis will bolster a defense on the rise and should put-up respectable stats his rookie season. Expect 38 TK - 3 Sacks - 1 FF.

6) New York Jets

Darren McFadden - RB - Arkansas

There's only one team in the league that can royally screw-up this pick...J-E-T-S-JETS! JETS! JETS! Call me crazy, but somehow I think the Jets will actually get it right this time. They've made a bunch of off-season moves to bolster their offensive line and fill in gaps on the defense. All of which I believe was done so that they could put themselves in a position to take the best player available come draft day. McFadden is the most electrifying player in the draft and is comparable to last year's rookie phenom, Adrian Peterson. He's physical, fast and is a game-changing player. This kid will be a fantasy sports star in New York. With DMC still on the board at pick #6, the Jets will be ecstatic and take him faster than you can say Mangenious.

Alternatives: Vernon Gholston, Sedrick Ellis, Leodis Mckelvin, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

Fantasy Impact: McFadden will have an immediate impact in the NFL and should be the first player taken in Dynasty league formats. He'll most likely have to split reps with Thomas Jones, but so did Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor and you see how that ended-up. McFadden is capable of putting up 1,100+ yards and 10 TD's his rookie season and could easily be a solid #2 / possible low-end #1 RB in all formats.

7) New England Patriots

Vernon Gholston - DE / LB - Ohio State

It's hard to believe you can say this about a team who went 18-1, but they need some work on the defensive side of the ball. They lost All Pro CB Asante Samuel, CB Randall Gay and their linebackers aren't getting any younger. Normally I'd say this pick would be for a corner like Leodis McKelvin, Mike Jenkins or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, but LB Vernon Gholston is a freak of nature and will seamlessly fit right into the Pats 3-4 scheme.

Alternatives: Leodis McKelvin, Mike Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

Fantasy Impact: Gholston reminds me a lot of Shawne Merriman and he'll have an immediate impact in the NFL. He should be able to post stats his rookie year of 55 TK - 8+ Sacks - 2 FF. He's a star in the making.

8) Baltimore Ravens

Ryan Clady - OL - Boise St.

This pick solely depends on the status of Jonathan Ogden, as there's been speculation that the All World OT may retire. If he does, the pick has to be an offensive lineman and Clady is the best OT still on the board. If they don't go with a lineman, look for them to reach a little bit and grab CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

Alternatives: Leodis McKelvin, Mike Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Brian Brohm

Fantasy Impact: Clady will be taking over for one of the best OT ever to play. His addition can only help Willis McGahee and the rest of the Ravens offense.

9) Cincinnati Bengals

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie - CB - Tennessee St.

How long have the Bengals been desperate for help on D? I thought when they brought in Marvin Lewis that he would change all of that, but he hasn't. And so in a desperate attempt to land a possible shut down corner, the Bengals buy into the hype and draft Cromartie. Granted, the division I-AA star showed well at the Senior Bowl and was able to play with the big boys. But a division I-AA guy in the top ten? I hope that Marvin knows what he's doing or this could be the last straw for him.

Alternatives: Leodis McKelvin, Mike Jenkins, Keith Rivers

Fantasy Impact: If he's for real, he could put-up nice stats as a rookie. A season with 30 tackles and 3 picks is certainly possible.

10) New Orleans Saints

Keith Rivers - LB - USC

This pick is such a wildcard for me. I could see the Saints going with several different players...definitely a defensive player though. In the end, I think they'll go with Rivers because he could start immediately. He's a hard worker with a non-stop motor and has played against top competition at USC.

Alternatives: Leodis McKelvin, Mike Jenkins, Aqib Talib, Phillip Merling

Fantasy Impact: Should be considered no more than a late round flier in IDP leagues.

Jason Goldman

[http://www.rotoexpert.com]

Will the young players make an impact? That is always one of the most important questions heading into a fantasy draft, because there are often sleepers, average players, and complete busts. Last year, the top potential offensive players were J.J. Arrington, Braylon Edwards, and Mike Williams. None of them ended up having the type of seasons that warrant a high-draft pick, which definitely has to stick in your mind this year.

Ratings System

*****: The ultimate player. They have the potential to be within the top five at their position in the entire NFL this year, as well as making the Pro Bowl, or being named the offensive rookie of the year.

****: Will definitely be a starter for their team, and will perform like between an average NFL player and the ultimate player.

***: Will be an average performer, because they don't play on the greatest team in the world, or will need some time to develop.

**: They may take over as the starter halfway through the season. Overall, they really won't make that much of an impact.

*: They will see limited playing time, or will not perform well enough to put up anything worthy of a fantasy point.

Quarterbacks

First off, let it be known that it is too difficult to project if a quarterback will even have the chance to do well for your team. More times than not, a rookie quarterback either has an average-at-best first year in learning the system, or they sit behind the starting quarterback for most of the year. One note of advice: do not take a rookie quarterback within the first ten rounds of the draft: it won't be worth it.

Important Statistic for QB's: 27 non-rookie quarterbacks threw for more yards last year than Kyle Orton, who led rookie QB's with 1,869 yards thrown.

Vince Young, Tennessee Titans ***

The Titans just released Steve McNair, narrowing the competition to Volek and Young. Young won't sit the entire season, but when he does get in, he'll have to learn that he can't run as freely as he did in college. He has the most potential this year of all the rookie quarterbacks.

Matt Leinart, Arizona Cardinals **

Kurt Warner will be the man for the Cardinals, and Leinart's playing time could end up like what Eli Manning saw two years ago under the Giants. He won't do you any good until late in the season.

Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos *

With Jake Plummer coming off a career year, Cutler won't even see the field. Do not even think about taking Cutler, because there is no sense in it whatsoever.

Running Backs

Important Statistic for RB's: 12 running backs finished ahead of Carnell Williams, the leading rusher among rookies last year.

Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints ***

Of all the players from the draft, Bush certainly has the potential to become a 5-star player. However, he's playing on a team that was not very good last year, and will be splitting time with another talented running back in Deuce McAllister.

Laurence Maroney, New England Patriots **

Corey Dillon will still be the go-to-guy for the Patriots, leaving Maroney as the backup. However, the Patriots always find a role for their players, and Maroney will see quite a bit of playing time still.

DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers *

Theoretically, it seems like Williams could have a lot of potential playing time sue to DeShaun Foster's past injuries. However, it's not easy to pick up yards in the Panthers' system, and Williams will not see a great deal of playing time per game.

Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts ***

Addai is not the Colts' starter yet, but once the season rolls around, he'll have the job won. Addai could be the biggest offensive sleeper in the draft because he's not well known, however will be playing in a system that is very well developed.

LenDale White, Tennessee Titans **

White could potentially be a red zone threat for the Titans, allowing him to accumulate some touchdowns much like Brandon Jacobs did last year for the Giants. He'll also see some action besides the red zone, though.

Wide Receivers

Important Statistic for WR's: This year's receiving class was considered "not very good". Last year, Braylon Edwards led rookie receivers with 512 yards, leaving tons of other receivers ahead of him.

Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers **

The Steelers leading receiver is typically Hines Ward, and next they look for the running threat. Holmes won't jump into the league with big numbers, but will be smooth as an average receiver in his first year.

Chad Jackson, New England Patriots **

Although the Patriots are starting to use Deion Branch a little more, they like to give their receivers equal playing time. The Patriots need another receiver to produce in the absence of David Givens.

Sinorice Moss, New York Giants *

The Giants already have several receiving threats, so Moss will not see a whole lot of snaps. He may find himself on the receiving end of the deep ball occasionally, though.

Tight Ends

Please note: A four-star rating for a tight end would be different than a four-star rating for a wide receiver. If a rookie tight end records 700 yards, that would be an outstanding season as a tight end, but mediocre for a receiver.

Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers ****

Davis will have an incredible rookie year as a tight end, coming close to some of the elite tight ends. Alex Smith needs a go-to-guy, and that will develop into Davis.

Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars *

Lewis will see some touches, but it won't nearly be enough to become a consistent threat for your team.

Conclusion

Overall, it should be known that rookies rarely make a worthy impact for your fantasy team. The players with the most potential this year are Reggie Bush, Vernon Davis, and possibly Vince Young if he's named the starter. The biggest sleeper without question will be Joseph Addai, but even he should not be taken higher than necessary.

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Chris Pokorny is the owner of Pro Football Critics, located at http://www.pfcritics.com/.